Hilton Amex math: No-fee card yields 25% on spend. Aspire? 2.5%.

The best yield among Hilton's Amex welcome offers is the no-fee Hilton Honors card: 100,000 points plus a $100 statement credit after $2,000 spend, netting $500 in value at TPG's 0.4 cpp valuation. That's a 25% return on spend. The Aspire card, despite its 175,000-point bonus, costs a $550 annual fee, leaving only $150 net on $6,000 spend — a 2.5% yield. The Surpass and Business cards land in between, with $520 net after $0 first-year fees on $3,000 and $8,000 spend respectively. If you need Diamond status or resort credits, the Aspire has other angles, but as a pure welcome-bonus play, the free card wins.

The play: Apply for the Hilton Honors American Express Card (no annual fee) before July 29 to lock in the 100,000-point bonus plus $100 credit on $2,000 spend.